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Why is a 70% Win Rate Unrealistic When Betting on the NFL?

The sport betting industry is one which lacks regulation, meaning anybody can start a company, site or used car salesman character to start selling selections. Because there’s absolutely no regulation, handicappers can correct false records and guarantees of unimaginable wealth in order to obtain business.

When there are lots of legitimate and transparent handicappers in the industry, there are also an overwhelming amount who use bogus names, flashy cars, girls of questionable clothing and morals (we are guessing) and unachievable records to convince new or uneducated bettors to buy their selections.

Even though this might seem a little over the top, we often get calls asking why people do not hit 70% of our matches such as many of the other services on the market. Our response is always that a 70% win rate isn’t attainable over the long-haul.

To explain this in more detail, we analyzed the likelihood that a sports bettor can win 70% of all wagers to illustrate exactly how unrealistic this is.

For the purposes of this guide, we chose the z-ratio (also referred to as z-score) to demonstrate how many standard deviations away from»anticipated» an event is.

Example 1: No Edge

This example presumes a handicapper who hits 50 percent of his matches, meaning that the handicapper doesn’t have any edge when choosing games. The data assumes 1,000 plays against the spread (with a vig of -110) within a calendar year, across all major US sports.

Read more: online bookie sites